Emerging Markets Look Interesting

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Not many people are talking about emerging markets (EM) lately but that may be about to change. For a long time, countries considered to be “emerging” were heavily tied to the commodity cycle and inflation. Examples included China and Brazil. This was the case in the mid 2000’s when emerging markets and commodities experienced explosive … Read more Emerging Markets Look Interesting

Easy Policy Is Here To Stay

The Federal Reserve has two primary jobs: maintaining maximum employment and stable prices. How it achieves this is changing. Last week they made a significant announcement signaling that future monetary policy will be very different than policy of the last 40 years. Ever since the persistent inflation of the 1970’s, the Federal Reserve has taken proactive … Read more Easy Policy Is Here To Stay

Leading Indicators and Lumber

years, the LEI has been one of the most reliable indicators in projecting future economic activity. What’s noteworthy today is that seven of the ten factors that comprise the index increased in June. The only constituents to lag were credit, manufacturing of new consumer goods, and consumer confidence. Manufacturing should begin improving as the economy reopens and businesses restart production. Credit … Read more Leading Indicators and Lumber

Trending In The Right Direction

Encouraging trends are pointing to a healing labor market. Unemployment claims fell below one million per week to 963,000, beating expectations by a wide margin. This is a meaningful improvement from the six million weekly claims from late March and early April. Even in the best of times new unemployment claims run 200,000 to 300,000 per week. Equally … Read more Trending In The Right Direction

Election Talk

The U.S. Presidential election is a little more than three months away. The campaign will be vigorously contested by both parties, with emotions running high and possibly greater than normal market volatility, including after the election depending on its outcome. Political candidates typically campaign from extreme positions to inspire their supporters and encourage voter turnout, but most … Read more Election Talk