4th Quarter 2020 Investment Commentary

In 1985 we were introduced to Doc Brown, Marty McFly and their retrofitted DeLorean time machine in the movie Back to the Future. Two sequels followed to complete the trilogy that has since become embedded in pop culture lore. In the second film, the Grey’s Sports Almanac with 50 years of professional sports results was … Read more

Emerging Markets Look Interesting

Image of stock market numbers

Not many people are talking about emerging markets (EM) lately but that may be about to change. For a long time, countries considered to be “emerging” were heavily tied to the commodity cycle and inflation. Examples included China and Brazil. This was the case in the mid 2000’s when emerging markets and commodities experienced explosive … Read more

Book Review

The Psychology of Money Book Cover

Morgan Housel’s The Psychology of Money was released in early September and IT IS EXCELLENT. Housel delivers twenty chapters that can be read independently and share a commonsense approach to the behavioral aspects of money and investing. It is not a technical read. It is very well written and filled with valuable insights on how all of … Read more

Tech Mania 2.0?

We continue to hear commentary that suggests certain parts of the market look and feel a lot like the tech bubble in the late 90’s. Many people point to soaring stock prices, high valuations, large Initial Public Offerings (IPO’s), and of course the fact that so much of it is tied to technology companies. Our … Read more

A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words

Election day is finally here folks! Probably like you, we are a little bit tired of reading and talking about it. In the spirit of keeping this short and sweet, not much commentary needed with this chart. Blue or red…the direction is pretty clear. Would you agree? Happy voting!

Easy Policy Is Here To Stay

The Federal Reserve has two primary jobs: maintaining maximum employment and stable prices. How it achieves this is changing. Last week they made a significant announcement signaling that future monetary policy will be very different than policy of the last 40 years. Ever since the persistent inflation of the 1970’s, the Federal Reserve has taken proactive … Read more

Numbers Don’t Lie

Vanguard recently published a study on performance of a 60% stock /40% bond portfolio in election years vs. non election years. The data goes back 160 years and starts with a Lincoln win in 1860 when he took 180 of only 303 electoral votes to become the nation’s 16th president. Ladies and gentleman, here are … Read more

Leading Indicators and Lumber

years, the LEI has been one of the most reliable indicators in projecting future economic activity. What’s noteworthy today is that seven of the ten factors that comprise the index increased in June. The only constituents to lag were credit, manufacturing of new consumer goods, and consumer confidence. Manufacturing should begin improving as the economy reopens and businesses restart production. Credit … Read more

Trending In The Right Direction

Encouraging trends are pointing to a healing labor market. Unemployment claims fell below one million per week to 963,000, beating expectations by a wide margin. This is a meaningful improvement from the six million weekly claims from late March and early April. Even in the best of times new unemployment claims run 200,000 to 300,000 per week. Equally … Read more